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New report predicts shortfall of 100,000 care home beds by 2020

Calls for immediate ring-fencing of council funding for care of older people
NHS faces bed-blocking crisis if homes are forced to close
Leading care home provider, Bupa, today warns that if councils' adult social care budgets are not ring-fenced, the UK risks a shortfall of nearly 100,000 care home beds over the next decade. This reduction will lead to a "bed-blocking" crisis for the NHS, and a postcode lottery for aged care as shortages emerge across the country.

A new report from Bupa, published today, reveals that real-term spending cuts to care will reduce the number of care home beds by 81,000 over the coming decade. At the same time our ageing population is likely to see an additional 18,000 older people needing care. These two factors could result in almost 100,000 older people being left at home or admitted to hospitals - potentially occupying half of the NHS's beds.

As local council budgets are being set across the country, Bupa is calling for the £2bn the government ear-marked for adult social care to be ring-fenced and spent on the purpose for which it was intended - caring for frail, older people and to take into account care home inflation. There is real concern that hard-pressed councils may direct the money to plug holes in other budgets.

Mark Ellerby, managing director, Bupa Care Services, said:

"Today's report reveals that the scale of the problem is much bigger than we thought. Unless councils protect funding for the elderly, thousands of vulnerable, frail older people will be unable to get the care home places they need and will have no option but to go into hospital. Not only is this deeply concerning for them and their families, but it is also worrying for the already stretched NHS as it will create a bed blocking crisis which will affect us all."

The report, ‘Who Cares?' Funding Adult Social Care Over the Next Decade', lays bare the realities of the impact continuing under-funding of care home places will have on the wider health sector; care home beds will go as providers with large debts fail, fewer new care homes will be built and less will be spent on maintaining existing homes.

Baroness Greengross, chair of the All-Party Parliamentary Group on Dementia and chief executive of ILC-UK, who supports Bupa's view, added:

"This is a striking read. Council leaders across the country must make a public pledge to pass on in full the £2bn allocated to them by the Government to fund adult social care and to take account of care home inflation when setting their fees."

Mr Ellerby continues:

"Care homes have faced years of underfunding but these new figures reveal that we are now at a tipping point. We are clear - councils have to prioritise care for older people, otherwise we could see thousands of older people left isolated and without the specialist care they need."

Bupa supports the work of the ‘Dilnot Commission' on Funding of Care and Support, which it believes will address the under-funding of aged care in the long-term. But to prevent a crisis in the short-term, Bupa is calling for the following action:

The £2billion allocated by the Government to fund adult social care by 2014-15 must be ring-fenced and local authority leaders must pledge to pass it on, in full. Councils must also take into account care home inflation when setting budgets (a conservative estimate would be 2.5%)
Local authorities should work with primary care trusts and the emerging GP Commissioning Consortia to further join up the health and social care systems and produce plans that cross ‘budget borders'.
Local councils should assess and plan for likely future demand for aged care services in their areas.
Central government should create a simple and easy to understand ‘national standard' system for assessing an individual's needs and eligibility for care.
Both national and local government should work to simplify the planning process so it is easier to build new, modern, specialist care homes where needed.