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UK RETAILERS SEE SALES DIP – CBI DISTRIBUTIVE TRADES SURVEY

CBI

28 July 2011

The volume of sales on the high street in July was slightly lower than expected, compared to a year earlier, as shoppers reined in spending in the face of rising food and petrol prices, according to the CBI.
The CBI Distributive Trades Survey was conducted between 28 June and 19 July. It revealed that 33% of retailers saw sales volumes rise on a year ago, while 38% reported a fall. The resulting balance of -5% was the weakest since June 2010 (a balance of -5%) and disappointed retailers’ expectations. It continued the weakness seen in the June survey (-2%).
The three-month moving average of sales volumes, which smoothes out monthly peaks and troughs, weakened to +4%, compared with +12% in June.
Sales were reported to be poor for the time of year by a balance of -33% of retailers, the lowest since May 2009 (-36%).
The decline was driven by the first fall in grocers’ sales volumes (-16%) in 30 months (-20%). Sales of footwear & leather (-84%), durable household goods (-76%) and hardware & DIY (-62%) also fell sharply.
Retailers expect sales volumes to fall at a faster rate next month (-12%).
Judith McKenna, Chair of the CBI Distributive Trades Panel and ASDA Chief Operating Officer, said:
“Rising prices, especially for fuel, continue to impact consumer confidence and make life tough on the high street.
“There's been a fall in real disposable incomes since the beginning of the year with shoppers either cutting back or trading down to make their declining spending power go further.
“With consumer confidence fragile, UK retailers continue to face challenging times.”
The volume of orders placed by retailers upon suppliers fell (-13%) at the fastest rate since May 2010 (-24%), and a similar decline is expected next month (-17%). The volume of stocks in relation to expected demand (+17%) is hovering around the long-run average (+18%).
Among wholesalers, 44% reported a rise in the volume of sales in July and 15% a fall, giving a balance of +28%. Among motor traders, 23% saw the volume of sales increase, while 62% reported a fall, giving a balance of -39%, and sales are expected to fall again next month (-30%).